Rolling Blackouts a Possibility This Winter
Are coal and natural gas in short supply in the U.S. these days? And if so, what does that mean for our upcoming winter?
According to a U.S. regulatory agency, those supplies are indeed tight. And that means when we experience bouts of extreme cold this winter, large areas of North America could face rolling blackouts and other energy emergencies.
The North American Electrical Reliability Council (NERC) announced its seasonal assessment recently. A spokesperson said severe weather may stress the grids by causing demand for natural gas, coal and backup fuel that can't be matched by the supply.
John Moura is director of reliability assessment for NERC. He said, "The trend is we see more retirements of critical generation, fuel challenges, and we are doing everything we can. These challenges don't… appear out of nowhere.
According to a U.S. regulatory agency, those supplies are indeed tight. And that means when we experience bouts of extreme cold this winter, large areas of North America could face rolling blackouts and other energy emergencies.
The North American Electrical Reliability Council (NERC) announced its seasonal assessment recently. A spokesperson said severe weather may stress the grids by causing demand for natural gas, coal and backup fuel that can't be matched by the supply.
John Moura is director of reliability assessment for NERC. He said, "The trend is we see more retirements of critical generation, fuel challenges, and we are doing everything we can. These challenges don't… appear out of nowhere.
25% of Americans at Risk
Areas of the country most likely to see blackouts from extreme cold this winter include Texas, the central U.S. system stretching from the Great Lakes to Louisiana, New England, and the Carolinas.
This represents about one-quarter of America's 332 million population. Prices remain high for the below-average stockpiles of gasoline, and the war in Ukraine continues to take its toll. A railroad strike would make matters worse.
Jim Matheson is CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. He said, "As the demand for electricity risks outpacing the available supply during peak winter conditions, consumers face an inconceivable but real threat of rolling blackouts.
"Absent a shift in state and federal energy policy, this is a reality we will face for years to come."
This represents about one-quarter of America's 332 million population. Prices remain high for the below-average stockpiles of gasoline, and the war in Ukraine continues to take its toll. A railroad strike would make matters worse.
Jim Matheson is CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. He said, "As the demand for electricity risks outpacing the available supply during peak winter conditions, consumers face an inconceivable but real threat of rolling blackouts.
"Absent a shift in state and federal energy policy, this is a reality we will face for years to come."
'Dire Set of Consequences This Winter'
The Midcontinent Independent System Operator manages the central U.S. grid. According to the NERC, the Operator has limited power supplies after too many generators shut last winter.
In addition, Gulf Coast plants did not do enough to protect against cold weather. The inadequate weatherization of power plants, combined with shortages in backup fuel supplies, does not bode well if winter weather is severe.
New England's lack of gas supplies is even more concerning than last year. James Danly is a commissioner on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. He said, "There is a very real possibility that New England could be facing a dire set of consequences this winter."
Texas and other southern states experienced blackouts in February 2021 that lasted for days and ended up leaving about 200 people dead.
Since then, state officials have tried to prepare the gas infrastructure and power plants for another potential extreme weather situation. But U.S. regulators still say Texas is at the highest risk
In addition, Gulf Coast plants did not do enough to protect against cold weather. The inadequate weatherization of power plants, combined with shortages in backup fuel supplies, does not bode well if winter weather is severe.
New England's lack of gas supplies is even more concerning than last year. James Danly is a commissioner on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. He said, "There is a very real possibility that New England could be facing a dire set of consequences this winter."
Texas and other southern states experienced blackouts in February 2021 that lasted for days and ended up leaving about 200 people dead.
Since then, state officials have tried to prepare the gas infrastructure and power plants for another potential extreme weather situation. But U.S. regulators still say Texas is at the highest risk
Cold and Snow Have Already Arrived
The NERC assessment warns "that a large portion of the North American bulk power system is at risk of having insufficient energy supplies during severe winter weather."
It concluded that "high-peak demand projections, inadequate generator weatherization, fuel supply risks, and limited natural gas infrastructure are contributory factors to reliability risk."
Now, there's always the possibility the country will experience a mild winter. But history – especially recent history – argues against those odds.
Last winter, the New England area got hit hard by a nor'easter bomb cyclone that included heavy snowfall, damaging winds and coastal flooding.
Even before this winter has officially started, upstate New York was deluged with huge amounts of snow, including more than five feet of the white stuff in Buffalo. And the Midwest had several days with high temperatures only in the 20s
It concluded that "high-peak demand projections, inadequate generator weatherization, fuel supply risks, and limited natural gas infrastructure are contributory factors to reliability risk."
Now, there's always the possibility the country will experience a mild winter. But history – especially recent history – argues against those odds.
Last winter, the New England area got hit hard by a nor'easter bomb cyclone that included heavy snowfall, damaging winds and coastal flooding.
Even before this winter has officially started, upstate New York was deluged with huge amounts of snow, including more than five feet of the white stuff in Buffalo. And the Midwest had several days with high temperatures only in the 20s
Precedent Has Been Set for Blackouts
Rolling blackouts have been imposed by U.S. grid operators in recent years. Including during the deep freeze in Texas last year and the 2020 heat waves in California.
Those rotating outages could occur again this winter if demand outstrips supply and operators are concerned about a grid failure.
Those rotating outages could occur again this winter if demand outstrips supply and operators are concerned about a grid failure.
Regardless of whether power outages occur this winter, it will be expensive to heat homes. Federal regulators have said New England residents could face their highest energy costs in more than a quarter of a century.
That will be due to a shortage of heating oil supplies and intense competition for liquefied natural gas
'Shake, Shiver, and Shovel'
The Farmers' Almanac is not perfect with its predictions, but it does have a pretty good track record.
Their slogan for this winter is "Shake, shiver and shovel." They say the eastern half of the country should brace for potentially record-breaking cold.
The "frigid forecast" extends to the Deep South and Texas. Just what folks there want to hear, right?
Here's what else they predict
Their slogan for this winter is "Shake, shiver and shovel." They say the eastern half of the country should brace for potentially record-breaking cold.
The "frigid forecast" extends to the Deep South and Texas. Just what folks there want to hear, right?
Here's what else they predict
- Winter temperatures will be colder than normal across much of the country between the East Coast and the Rocky Mountains.
- Snowfall will be greater than normal from central New England through northern North Carolina, from the Lower Great Lakes and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains, from the northern Plains into eastern Washington, and across the higher terrain of the southern Rockies and California.
- Freezing temperatures will also bring above-average snow totals to most areas in the eastern U.S. that typically experience snowfall.
Nobody wants their power cut off – even temporarily – in the winter. But it looks like it could happen in some areas. It's a good time to get your preparedness plans in order.
Featured Products
Patriot Power Generator 2000X
- Regular price
- $2,999
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $2,999
- Unit price
- per
NEW & improved solar generator with 2,000 watts of power, NEW expandable add-ons... and DOUBLE the battery capacity of our 1800 model. There's a reason why the Patriot Power Generator 2000X is "worth its weight in gold" in dangerous blackouts. It functions using only the power of the sun. Plus,...
72-Hour Survival Food Kit
- Regular price
- $29
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $29
- Unit price
- per
NEW & Improved! Your #1 need in an emergency is food. That's why both FEMA2 and the Red Cross3 say that you need a supply of non-perishable food on-hand. And now, you get 25% MORE food in your 72-Hour Survival Food Kit. Delicious & easy to prepare 16 20 total servings /...
2181
3-Month Survival Food Kit
- Regular price
- $699
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $699
- Unit price
- per
This Good-For-25-Year Survival Food Kit is actually in stock! After being "sold out" for more than a year, the Deluxe 3-Month Survival Food Kit is back on the menu. And it's better than ever. With exclusive recipes that are so yummy, you'll swear your grandma made them. 688 total servings...
3219
Victory Garden Seed Vault
- Regular price
- $29.95
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $29.95
- Unit price
- per
God’s Bounty at Your Fingertips. Imagine… you could grow & harvest your very own crop of nutrient-dense fresh fruit and vegetables to supplement a food stockpile. Your Victory Garden Seed Vault is a wonderful way to bring fresh vegetables to your garden and self-reliance to your dinner table. Grow thousands...
170
Patriot Power Cell®
- Regular price
- From $29.95
- Regular price
-
$119.80 - Sale price
- From $29.95
- Unit price
- per
704,617 Americans Own These Solar Backup Chargers.. The best-selling Solar Powered Cell Phone Charger keeps your devices ON when the lights go OUT. These pocket-sized "power plants" can be used every day or in a dangerous blackout. Charge for FREE using the SUN Power phones & USB devices Each charges...
1481
4-Week Survival Food Kit
- Regular price
- $277
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $277
- Unit price
- per
America Loves This Delicious Survival Food Kit. If you're looking to secure an affordable backup food supply — with the same delicious flavor that's in our bigger, more-expensive kits — the 4-Week Survival Food Kit is the perfect place to start. Each kit has 192 servings of tasty survival food (about 7 servings...
972
Patriot Pure Personal Water Filter
- Regular price
- $24.95
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $24.95
- Unit price
- per
Pure Water That Fits in Your Pocket. Access to clean drinking water is essential to survival. Give your family clean, great-tasting, water no matter where you are with Patriot Pure™ Personal Water Filters. Fits in the palm of your hand Removes up to 99.9% of germs* Filters up to 528...
40
Patriot Power Generator 1800
- Regular price
- $2,499
- Regular price
-
$2,499 - Sale price
- $2,499
- Unit price
- per
This best-selling portable solar generator is your “Magic Bullet” to protect you from blackouts, power failures & the crumbling electric grid. Use the Patriot Power Generator inside your home — to power a fridge, freezer, medical devices & more. It comes ready to use & never needs gas… ever! The...
654
HaloXT Tactical Solar Flashlight
- Regular price
- From $29.95
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- From $29.95
- Unit price
- per
If MacGyver had a Tactical Flashlight, it’d be This One. The HaloXT Multi-Use Solar Powered Flashlight has 9 functions with a single mission: keeping you safe. It's rechargeable — you can drain it down and charge it up thousands of times. But you don’t need electricity or batteries to power...
495
Heartland's Finest Powdered Milk Kit
- Regular price
- $99
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $99
- Unit price
- per
Milk Designed to Last 25 Years. Add more protein to your stockpile with 4Patriots Heartland's Finest Powdered Milk. So rich and creamy, you’ll think it’s fresh from the farm. Enjoy with your morning coffee, breakfast, or in your favorite recipes. With 128 servings… you won’t have to worry about going...
55
Patriot Power Sidekick®
- Regular price
- $499
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $499
- Unit price
- per
Mini Solar Generator Only Weighs 8 Pounds! Keep your family safe in a dangerous blackout using the FREE energy from the sun! Power critical devices in an emergency and stay connected to family, important news and first responders. Charge for FREE in the SUN Fume-free, silent & safe Included solar...
162
Emergency Food Bars
- Regular price
- From $29
- Regular price
-
$399.80 - Sale price
- From $29
- Unit price
- per
The Ultimate “No Prep” Survival Food. 4Patriots Emergency Food Bars require no cooking, added water or heat source. You’ll love the flavor... like a shortbread cookie delicately kissed with lemon. These aren’t your run-of-the-mill “energy bars.” With 400 calories per bar, just 1 Food Bar Pack provides basic rations for...
402
Gold Medallion All-Meat Survival Food Kit
- Regular price
- $249
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $249
- Unit price
- per
[REAL MEAT] “Beef Up” Your Survival Food Stockpile With Protein-Packed Meat. Does your survival stash have enough sustaining protein-rich meat to tide you over in a crisis? These All-Meat Survival Food Kits will satisfy the hungriest appetites. And they’re the perfect way to round out any food storage plan, and...
127
Patriot Pure Ultimate Water Filtration System
- Regular price
- $199
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $199
- Unit price
- per
The Ultimate in Water Filtration? YES! Give your family a reliable supply of cleaner, better tasting water from practically any freshwater source with the Patriot Pure™ Ultimate Water Filtration System. Reduces levels of 200+ contaminants* Includes 1 stainless-steel reservoir & 1 filter Gravity powered: No electricity required 22" tall and 8.5" in diameter...
153
Sun Kettle® XL Solar Cooker
- Regular price
- $99.95
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $99.95
- Unit price
- per
A Bigger Solar Hot Water Kettle is here! Using the same solar technology as its best-selling “baby brother,” the Sun KettleⓇ XL Personal Water Heater has 2X the hot-water capacity. Boil water in minutes — without fuel or flame! No batteries or electricity needed Extra large capacity (33.8 ounces of...
86
StarFire Camp Stove
- Regular price
- $59.95
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $59.95
- Unit price
- per
The Perfect Portable Stove for when SHTF. The StarFire Camp Stove™ gives you a simple & efficient way to boil water and cook food with only kindling or leaves as fuel.* Low smoke! Element-resistant stainless steel Cook meals without power No gas needed Boil water fast & safely Lightweight and...
55
Lumberjack Survival Food Kit
- Regular price
- $114.95
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $114.95
- Unit price
- per
Meals For Ultimate Strength & Stamina… Good For 25 Years! When the going gets tough, the tough need a good meal and that’s just what you get in the Lumberjack Survival Food Kit. 80 servings of stick-to-your ribs meals “Disaster-resistant” packaging Designed to last 25 Years* Handpacked in the USA Ships...
77
4Patriots SoLantern®
- Regular price
- $19.95
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $19.95
- Unit price
- per
Bright Light Anywhere You Go, Powered by the Sun! SoLantern® provides you with a reliable and portable off-the-grid light source with its built-in solar panel. The NEW 4Patriots SoLantern has a super-bright LED light to illuminate your outdoor surroundings when RVing, camping, hunting or fishing. It's great for your home, garage,...
51
4Patriots 40-Watt Folding Solar Panel
- Regular price
- $149
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $149
- Unit price
- per
Portable, Solar and Works with any USB Cord! Charge your phone, tablet or radio on the go. No generator necessary. Each 40-Watt panel folds up in seconds for easy transportation. Perfect for bug-out bags, camping or emergencies. Acts as its own power bank! Works with your phone or tablet Sets up...
13
Patriot Power Generator 100-Watt Folding Solar Panel
- Regular price
- $499
- Regular price
-
- Sale price
- $499
- Unit price
- per
Double Your Power Instantly! Cut your charge time in half & double the power of your Patriot Power Generator with a second (or third!) 100-Watt solar panel. Double your power instantly Charge your generator 2X faster Sets up in seconds Folds and transports anywhere… anytime! Ships from Utah, USA 100%...
17
Super-Charged Solar Generator Bundle
- Regular price
- $2,899
- Regular price
-
$2,999 - Sale price
- $2,899
- Unit price
- per
Now you’ve got the ultimate backup power solution in the palm of your hand… With the legendary Patriot Power Generator 1800 and the best-selling Patriot Power Sidekick — all in one total “power package!” 2 Generators that charge for FREE in the sun 2 FREE Solar panels included Fume-free, silent...
654