Experts Call for ‘Extremely Active’ Hurricane Season

Under normal circumstances, few of us would associate Colorado with hurricanes.

But climate specialists at Colorado State University are well respected. Their weather predictions are known for high levels of accuracy.

They predict there will be 23 named storms during 2024. The average number of named storms during a recent 30-year period was 14.4.

They also forecast that 11 of those storms will reach hurricane strength. That means wind speeds of 74 miles per hour or greater. The average is 7.2 such storms.

Early Hurricane Start Is Likely

Phil Klotzbach is an atmospheric researcher at CSU. He said, “The die is cast for 2024. I think what stands out the most about 2024 is just how warm the Atlantic is at present.

“Even if the tropical Atlantic warmed at the lowest observed rate between now and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, it would still be one of the warmest tropical Atlantic hurricane seasons on record.”

These warmer temperatures also mean hurricane season could start before June 1. Mother Nature doesn’t always stay on schedule.

As a senior research associate at the University of Miami recently tweeted, “The ocean says it’s June 1.”

5 Major Hurricanes in 2024?

The CSU weather folks predict five hurricanes will reach major hurricane strength.

That means Category 3, 4 or 5, with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher. The average is 3.2 major hurricanes.

The 11 hurricanes forecast are two more than the CSU weather team has ever predicted. In 1995, they called for nine hurricanes and we ended up with 11.

The state most likely to be hit by hurricanes in 2024 is Florida. But it’s very likely other states will also be heavily impacted. Including Georgia, the Carolinas, and Louisiana. Plus Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, and more up the East Coast.

And let’s not forget that in 2012, a total of 24 states were affected by Hurricane Sandy. That’s one-half of the contiguous states in America.

Warm Waters 8 Weeks Ahead of Schedule

Now, let’s face it. Weather predictions are sometimes wrong. And some weather prognosticators may exaggerate. To convince folks to listen to them or buy their books.

But this time, many factors point to a more active hurricane season. Perhaps much more active.

As mentioned, No. 1 is warm ocean waters. The Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic Ocean are seeing water temperatures at 80-plus degrees. That’s according to the Hurricane Central experts at Weather.com.

That puts those waters eight weeks ahead of schedule. Warm waters are currently expanding northward.

La Niña Pushing El Niño Out

A second reason 2024 could be a very rough hurricane season is that El Niño is weakening. It’s expected to be replaced by La Niña in late spring or early summer.

Why does that matter? Well, the La Niña weather pattern is known for having less wind shear than El Niño. And wind shear is what rips storms apart.

Meaning those storms can do less damage and are less likely to develop into hurricanes.

Also, La Niña features more rising, unstable air than El Niño. That type of air is more conducive to thunderstorms. And thunderstorms are the building blocks of tropical storms and hurricanes.  

Hurricanes Aiming for U.S.?

There is a third reason for concern about the 2024 hurricane season. It’s a combination of history and current weather models.

Those factors lead Weather.com senior meteorologist Jon Erdman to this conclusion. There will be more tropical storms and hurricanes than usual in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico this year.

So, if the experts are right, 2024 will not only be an extremely active hurricane season.

In addition, a significant number of those storms could be close to – or make landfall in – the U.S.

May ‘May’ Produce Strong Storms

Returning to the official hurricane season… it runs from June 1 through November 30. But that’s like defining the official start of summer as June 20. We all know it can get very hot well before June 20.

We also know there have been dangerous and deadly tropical storms in the Atlantic during the month of May. Including some hurricanes.

Tropical Storm Ana hit Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas in early May 2015. It killed two people. Three years later, Tropical Storm Alberto killed 18 on its way to the U.S. in late May 2018.

Personally, I wouldn’t wait until June 1 to get ready for a hurricane. Any more than I’d wait until June 20 to make sure my air conditioner was working.

Water Contaminations Could Follow

We’re also aware that a hurricane’s aftermath can play havoc with our water supply. Contaminations are rampant following these storms.

Floodwaters often mix with contents from water treatment plants. As well as surrounding lakes, streams, and well water.

On their way to mixing with those water sources, floodwaters can pick up all sorts of nasty things. Such as chemicals and animal droppings.

Having a reliable way to keep your drinking water safe is a must if you live in an area affected by hurricanes. Or any other strong storms. So, as always, be prepared.